Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Ode to Steve Jobs
All the world was abuzz today about theiPhone. This is one gorgeous, sexy, amazing-looking product. Although I've used a PC for years, I bought my first Macintosh early in 1984, and I worked at Apple for a few years. Steve Jobs has been my hero since I was about 14 years old, and the adventures he has had in his business life make Odysseus look like a bore.
Steve Jobs has more style in his pinkie than Bill Gates has in his whole body. And even though the Google founders could buy and sell Steve Jobs many times over, I doubt there's anyone in the country that would opt for lunch with the Google guys over Steve Jobs. He's amazing. As is the press coverage....the top story on CNN!
As well as Fox.....
So it's not surprise that Apple exploded higher today....on volume of over 100 million shares! It wasn't that many years ago that the entire stock market traded 100 million shares. Now just one stock can do it. Just look at this graph!
This is a very late posting, so I'm going to have to tear through it. Boeing (BA) still looks like it's changing trends.
COF, mentioned many times in this space, is moving achingly slowly, but at least it's moving down.
Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.
CSX still looks good on the short side.
And FTO is looking like it has a real chance at completing its head and shoulders pattern.
HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).
And Hilton (HLT) is obeying the "trendline changing from support to resistance" phenomenon.
Oh, and then there's RIMM. I set my stop too tight on this. It got killed today - obviously because of Apple. I mean, the Blackberry is the most boring piece of crap on the planet compared to the sexy iPhone. Who wants one of those ugly Blackberries now? That's so 2002.
RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.
...as does SIE...
...and TSO...
It's late, so I'd better publish this. I hopefully will have more time tomorrow for some general market analysis. Thanks for stopping by!
at1/09/200711 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:aapl,ba,cof,csx,esrx,fto,hes,hlt,rimm,rti,sie,steve jobs,tso
Monday, January 08, 2007
Grease the Pig
The market tumbled about fifty points earlier today, but it recovered to close up twenty-five on the Dow. I think the bulls are trying to mount a comeback. We will see if the nascent lower highs/lower lows has any legs to it.
One market that intrigues me on the long side is oil (as a short-term play). I think the recent tumble has been fast, and the "common knowledge" that we're in a very warm winter has permeated the media so thoroughly that it strikes me as a contrary indicator. This minute bar graph suggests a possible consolidation, with a stop-loss price on the OIH of 128.94.
The market, as measured by the Dow Jones Composite, seems to be in a trading range, and today we were near the bottom of it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if, by and large, this was an upward-pointing weak.
The Dow Jones 30 has a clearer "lower lows/lower highs" pattern going on, although it's not been that way for long. I've tried to use arrows and circles to simplify the pattern.
The NASDAQ 100 also suggest a medium-sized trend change.
One index I'm eyeing as a short - - although I might let it ride higher for a bit - - is the Russell 2000.
The S&P 500, whose puts I sold early in the day for a nice profit, may have topped out recently. But - you know me! - the guy who predicted 17 of the last 3 bear markets! But even a bull would agree the past couple of weeks have been on the downslope.
Another indication that we may have a bit of an upsurge is that the $VIX is relatively high, based on the activity of the past couple of months. It has typically softened once it reaches these levels, and the market tends to swell higher during that softening.
I've just got three stocks I wanted to point out tonight. Autozone (symbol AZO) looks like a potential double top. I bought puts on this today.
My fascination with Google (GOOG) goes unabated. A petite head and shoulders seems to be intact here.
Finally, MDC, which I have been short a few days, is behaving nicely, moving away from its neckline.
I'll be traveling tomorrow, but hopefully I'll get time to post an update at the airport. Thanks for dropping by!
at1/08/200713 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:$indu,$spx,azo,goog,mdc,oih
Friday, January 05, 2007
A Good Start
I have been in Lake Tahoe this week, just likelast year, and it's been snowing like mad. Here's a picture I took of - what else? - a bear yesterday, covered with snow (OK, it's a statue, but still). His eyes are totally covered, and he's got sort of a "where the hell am I?" look to him. I can relate.
I enjoy checking out The Kirk Report regularly, and a recent entry showed the fascinating fact thattwenty out of twenty sentiment indicators are bearish now. Even I find this amazing. And, believe me, Charles Kirk is no permabear - so you bulls might have a bit of respect for what's been said.
The graph below is one I find troubling. It shows the median value of real estate prices in my part of the country (the initials represent local counties - Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, and Monterey). Now, as you know, I normally love to see a graph that is primed for a fall......this graph, although crude, is pretty obviously a head and shoulders. But I own not one, but two, houses in this area. And it's no secret that housing is in a slump - maybe even a prolonged one. Not good!
Another macro trend (which had everyone in a panic early last summer) is the descent in crude oil prices. When crude was at about $80 per barrel, people were freaking out, and $100 per barrel seemed a foregone conclusion. My view of this market is very bearish. The break below the trendlines you see here is significant.
The NASDAQ exhibits something about trendlines that I've mentioned before, and which I always find fascinating. That is, the act of the trendline changing from support to resistance. Look how the market took its first fall last summer and spent most of 2006's second half climbing back up to kiss the underbelly of the trendline. Now the descent begins anew.
And look how the RSI in the Dow 30 keeps slipping away. The first trading week of 2007 seems off to a great start.
And the Transports have a good chance of cracking the enormously important trendline you see below the current price level.
Lastly, the Dow Utilities got clobbered today.
Now let's look at some short ideas. CBE:
CNX:
COF (mentioned often before):
CPT, a good real estate play:
ETR seems to have peaked out and slipped nicely today:
GS:
OIH may have bottomed out for now, in spite of my bearish view of crude oil. This may see an upward bounce next week.
RIMM worries me, as does Google. This is amazingly strong. Just look at the accompanying volume as well. If it busts above its lifetime high, marked here, I'm going to hang it up for now on this one.
If you've gotten this far, here's your reward......a mash-up of two of my favorite movies: Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer......and Full Metal Jacket. Those easily offended, don't even bother clicking the Play button.
at1/05/200715 insightful comments Links to this post
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